2024 United States presidential election in Maine

The 2024 United States presidential election in Maine took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maine voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. This election coincided with five referendum questions including a referendum to change the state flag, as well as a U.S. Senate election, U.S. House elections for the state's two congressional districts and various other state, county and local elections. The state uses ranked-choice voting.

Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The at-large votes were expected to be contested by both parties, but are favored to be carried by the Democratic presidential candidate, having last been won by a Republican in 1988. However, the two congressional districts were expected to be split between the Democratic and Republican candidates with ME-1 being a strongly blue district and ME-2 being a strongly red district, something that had occurred in both 2016 and 2020.

Maine at large was potentially considered a secondary battleground during the 2024 election cycle. In 2016, Trump narrowly lost Maine at-large to Hillary Clinton by less than 3% and a margin of 22,142 votes. However, in 2020, Biden won the state by just over 9% and 74,302 votes, though Trump held Maine's 2nd congressional district. However, most polls and analysts accurately predicted Maine to remain in the Democratic camp at large in the 2024 election.

Harris won Maine at-large by about 6.9%, worse than Biden but better than Clinton. As expected, Harris won Maine's 1st congressional district while Trump won Maine's 2nd congressional district. Ranked-choice tabulation was ultimately not used as Harris won a majority of the vote statewide and in the 1st district, while Trump won a majority of the vote in the 2nd district.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Maine Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Republican primary

The Maine Republican caucuses was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Attempted disqualification of Trump

Following a challenge to Trump's nomination petition for the Republican primary, the Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows on December 28, 2023 rejected Donald Trump's petition for the ballot on grounds of insurrection, similarly to what the Colorado Supreme Court ordered the secretary of state to do in Anderson v. Griswold for the Colorado primary. On January 2, 2024, Trump appealed the ruling to the Maine Superior Court, arguing that Bellows is biased and that she has "no legal authority to consider the federal constitutional issues presented by the challengers". On January 17, a Maine Superior Court judge ordered Bellows to wait for the Colorado case to be adjudicated by the Supreme Court before upholding or modifying her decision. Bellows appealed this decision to the Maine Supreme Judicial Court, and the appeal was dismissed on January 24. On March 4, 2024, the US Supreme Court ruled in Trump v. Anderson that the Colorado courts could not order for Trump to be removed from the Republican primary ballot as it is a matter for Congress to legislate on, which it had not. The secretary of state reversed her decision on the same day as the US Supreme Court's ruling.

General election

Predictions

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Maine's 1st congressional district

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Maine's 2nd congressional district

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Results

By county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Kennebec (largest municipality: Augusta)

By congressional district

Harris won the first of Maine's two congressional districts. Trump won the other district, which elected a Democrat to the House of Representatives in the same election cycle.

Analysis

A sparsely populated state in New England, Maine is one of the most rural states in the nation and is considered to be moderately blue.

All but two counties swung Republican compared to 2020, and Trump flipped Kennebec County, which he had won in 2016 but narrowly lost in 2020. However, the state trended (relative to the national popular vote) 3.9 points towards the Democrats, remaining non-competitively blue even as neighboring New Hampshire was decided rather narrowly. While every state in the union shifted toward Donald Trump in the 2024 election, Maine had one of the smallest such shifts. Trump was the first Republican since George H.W. Bush to win Kennebec with a majority, winning it in 2016 on a plurality. It was also the first time since 2012 the county was won by a majority, with Obama carrying it with 55%.